Appendix to "India's K-Shaped Recovery - An Analysis"
Section 1: HCES Survey 2022-23 In the original article, I had mentioned: “The Government of India has conducted the 2022-23 consumption expenditure survey (results are awaited). This would give the poverty rates for 2022-23, but with that we would not be able to know how it trended just before the pandemic.” I was of the opinion that the survey results would not suggest anything on the K-Shaped recovery. However, post the release of HCES 2022-23, a quick analysis shows that it poses a strong argument against the K-shaped recovery narrative. Let me explain. Key assumptions: There has been no recovery among the poorer sections since 2018-19 (consumption surveys are generally conducted from July to June and hence, taking 2019-20 would not be appropriate due to lockdowns in June 2020 quarter). Consumption expenditure surveys of 2011-12 and 2022-23 are comparable and hence one can calculate growth rates in consumption from 2011-12 to 2022-23. As per HCES 2022-23, the real growth in con...